Mills favourite in December polls: EIU Report

PRESIDENT John Evans Atta Mills is a slight favourite in the upcoming December presidential election, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a specialist publishing company in the United Kingdom, has said.

In its country report released on Ghana in January this year, it said the favourable economic picture of high growth and relatively low inflation was certain to inure to the advantage and benefit of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC).

It said the 2012 presidential election would be a repeat of the 2008 contest in which a per cent of votes separated the NDC from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the final run-off.

“The power of incumbency will, however, give some advantage to the NDC, especially in terms of spending the early oil windfall,” the report said.

Conversely, the losing side might be less inclined to accepting the results than in previous close-run elections.
That the report said was likely to greatly increase domestic tension that could lead to the outbreak of violence.

“However, the country’s domestic processes are considered sufficiently well embedded to ensure that post-election unrest on the scale seen in Cote d’Ivoire or Kenya in 2007-2008 will be avoided,” it said.

The report also said President Mills, who had struggled to maintain party unity in the lead to the NDC’s July 2011 congress, would be faced with mudslinging and squabbling between the party’s two rival factions, which could play into the hands of the opposition.

It further said 2016 could be a very different stage of development from now, providing that the oil boom was managed effectively, saying, “If this is the case, whoever wins at the December polls would have a strong chance of securing re-election.”

The flip side to this, it said, would be that “if development has not been viewed by the electorate as having improved enough”, then another swap in power between the NDC and the NPP could be expected.

It said whereas the NDC looked set to suffer from internal rivalries should President Mills and the NDC be victorious in 2012, which would have made him serve a maximum two terms by 2016, agreeing upon a successor would probably cause tension in the party, on which the NPP could capitalise well.

On international relations, the report foresaw tension between Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire resulting from their maritime border, said to be holding significant hydrocarbon resources.

That, the report said, was most likely to see a joint exploration zone being agreed on by both parties.
It said whereas Ghana’s economic policy outlook demanded that fiscal policy management be improved, pressing demands for greater development spending would mean that there would be slippages on fiscal targets.

Additionally, the report predicted a shift in focus from improving public expenditure management and increased revenue collection towards developing the business environment, reducing poverty and extending credit and support to the private sector.

It said whereas progress on all fronts was expected to slow gradually as political manoeuvring intensified ahead of the December 2012 and 2016 elections, reforms were expected to pick up between the elections, but its pace would depend on who was in power.

SOURCE: Della Russel Ocloo, Daily Graphic, Tue Feb 7, 2012